Predictable Tunes, Unpredictable Lives
Musical Clarity in a World of Uncertain Forecasts
Prediction is hard!
If you’ve been a subscriber, you’re about to read something very predictable…
As a very bratty Substack writer and curious Kat, I enjoy sending out surveys!
Each survey reminds me of three things:
Other people exist and choose to talk to me?
People think very differently than me. So is there truth in my specific thoughts and opinions?
Even when I'm close to someone, I'm often surprised by their responses to my surveys.
Surveys keep me humble about my ability to guess correctly.
Prediction is hard! Sometimes the stakes are high, and we agonize over big predictions, feeling like Unstable Tables. Other times, there is no time, and we just need to make a prediction and a choice. For example, sometimes you are sent off on a spontaneous trip to Brazil!
After our last discussion about purpose, I sent out two surveys to dig deeper into our relationship with music, intelligence, and daily life.
The first survey revealed a surprising depth of engagement from our overachiever community regarding music, far surpassing their responses about purpose. After reading the responses, I was left with more questions.
I sent out my my second survey on music and predictions to explore a hypothesis: while we might struggle to predict many things in life, we're remarkably good at predicting how music will make us feel and what music we need for specific purposes.
I predicted these Survey results:
We might not all be intelligent (some of my friends dared to say “no” to “Do you consider yourself to be intelligent?”) but we all use music intelligently.
A striking 85% of survey respondents use music intentionally to influence their mood or productivity
while 77% can accurately predict how specific music will affect them.
61.5% choose music that fits their mood without conscious reasoning, suggesting an intuitive musical intelligence.
This ability to predict and manage emotional states through music may enhance overall emotional intelligence, with 46% reporting that music helps them express emotions they struggle to verbalize.
Music is predictable.
For years, I've been curating a "Joyful Things" list. I've meticulously reviewed books, TV shows, movies, podcasts, and music, searching for content that could be universally categorized as joyful. People have been taking my Joyful Project survey for 4 years now. By the way, feel free to recommend a joyful something! Strikingly, it's been far easier for people to recommend joyful music than TV shows, movies, or books.
This aligns with my own experience. I often can't predict how a book will make me feel. I've run my joyful-reads book club for 4 years now, and it's been challenging to find interesting books that are consistently joyful. Any recs?
TV shows and movies disappoint me too. I frequently find myself thinking, "That's supposed to be a comedy!?"
But music? Music I can predict. It's a safer bet with quicker results.
For example, "Good Day" by Nappy Roots always cheers me up, even when I'm determined to stay grumpy.
Music is a consistent tool for me, with highly predictable results. While I've always valued this quality, I felt compelled to explore and write about the reasons behind music's remarkably consistent impact.
🎵Ancestral Rhythms🎵
Way back in the early days for humans, the stakes of prediction were incredibly high. Our early ancestors faced daily challenges that made accurate predictions crucial for survival. Those who lived into their 40s were not only lucky but also skilled at predicting and avoiding dangers. Perhaps their milestone birthday celebrations were even more elaborate than mine!
Our ability to sing and dance predates spoken and written language. Music and rhythmic movement played a crucial role in early human communication and social bonding, emerging before the development of more complex linguistic systems.
Humans were, in some ways, defenseless against other animals with claws and canines, so they had to rely on each other for survival and also be very in tune with their bodies and nature. It makes sense to me that they would be very in tune with sound—good at listening to sound, controlling their sound, and predicting sound.
The Technological Shift in Prediction:
Nowadays, our predictions are often dependent on technology. We track everything we do, using technology, and rely on technology to help us with our predictions:
Instead of keeping track of the clouds, we turn to a Weather app.
Instead of relying on our internal body clock to know when it's time to eat or sleep, we depend on notifications and alarms.
Instead of relying on our internal sense of exertion, fatigue, and well-being to pace ourselves and predict our health, we now depend on fitness apps and smart jewelry devices.
Instead of relying on our body's signals, we now depend on thermometers, blood pressure monitors, and other gadgets to assess our health.
We live longer now, but at what cost?
Just kidding! It is great that we have more than just our brains (for they can malfunction) to make predictions.
Yet, amidst our reliance on technology, it's crucial to remember that we possess an ancient and sophisticated predictive system - our own bodies. While we've developed impressive technological tools to augment our predictive capabilities, we shouldn't overlook the remarkable sensory apparatus we've evolved over hundreds of thousands of years. This natural predictive system, particularly our auditory sense, continues to serve us in ways we often take for granted.
Our oldest predictive tool:
We are an instrument, absorbing our environment and anticipating the next sound and its meaning. This innate ability enables us to respond appropriately to our surroundings, often without conscious thought.
I take our complex neural machinery for granted, and notice that many others do too. When I walk around, I'm not consciously grateful for my body interpreting so much sound surrounding me and keeping me safe.
In fact, we're so fortunate to feel so safe that we often disconnect from our natural senses! Instead of attuning ourselves to our surroundings, we plug headphones into our ears, immersing ourselves in an entirely separate sonic landscape!
Perhaps this is because survival is no longer our primary challenge. For many of my friends, the new struggle is to feel and appear intelligent.
Prediction is intelligence!
If you ask me, we're all quite intelligent. Our bodies have carried us this far, after all! We've made countless accurate predictions along the way.
In the survey on intelligence, respondents defined intelligence as the ability to synthesize large amounts of information and make accurate predictions based on it.
We live in a fascinating era where our intellectual competition extends beyond our peers to include artificial intelligence.
What makes GPT so intelligent? Its ability to accurately predict the most fitting response to your input.
While AI tools are valuable, they're not a panacea. We should focus on better understanding our bodies and harnessing our innate abilities—including the often-overlooked musical intelligence.
I defined Musical intelligence in previous post, but here is the summary:
Musical intelligence is the knack for recognizing, creating, and manipulating musical elements such as pitch, rhythm, and tone. It also includes the ability to use music effectively for emotional and social purposes. This intelligence goes beyond technical musical skills—it involves intuitively understanding how to use music to influence moods, enhance activities, and connect with others in various settings.
How can we use sound to enhance our predictive abilities and boost our intelligence?
To enhance your musical intelligence, and general intelligence, you can actively and intentionally use music as a tool.
Actively listening means no multitasking—it's just you and the sounds.
The below information is based on scientific research I've studied. It's fascinating to learn about the intricate processes occurring within our bodies as we listen to, experience, and process a song. This complexity only deepens my appreciation for music's power.
Here are some compelling reasons to dedicate an extra few minutes each day to actively listening to music:
To improve HRV
Listening to music, especially a diverse range of genres, is beneficial for our health! It increases Heart Rate Variability by influencing our breathing patterns—a crucial factor for overall well-being.
If you have trouble breathing deeply or focusing on your breath, music can be a helpful aid!
While many people turn to exercise, healthy eating, and alternating between ice baths and hot saunas to achieve HRV, simply listening to music is an easy and effective addition.
By varying and regulating our breathing through music, we can improve our health. And when we're healthier, we have more bandwidth to make better predictions and enhance our intelligence.
To manage stress
While no single song is universally relaxing, research suggests that certain musical characteristics can help reduce stress:
Look for music with a tempo of 60-80 beats per minute, which often aligns with a resting heart rate.
Choose songs featuring natural sounds like rainfall or ocean waves, which can trigger a calming biophilic response.
Opt for pieces with minimal lyrics and gentle instrumentation (e.g., piano, strings, or ambient synths).
Classical compositions like Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" or more modern ambient works by artists like Brian Eno have been shown to have stress-reducing effects in studies.
"Weightless" by Marconi Union was crafted to induce relaxation by gradually slowing its tempo from 60 to 50 beats per minute, mirroring and guiding the listener's heart rate to a calmer state. The song uses "entrainment" to align brainwaves with its frequencies, incorporates low frequencies and gentle sounds like pianos and chimes, and includes natural sound samples to trigger a biophilic response. All these elements aim to activate the brain's reward system and induce a sense of well-being. It's a low-risk, quick method to manage anxiety. While there's debate about whether its effects were overstated by marketing efforts, it's still worth a try!
To focus
Research suggests that working in silence is optimal for focus and productivity. However, if you find music helpful, opt for instrumental tracks without lyrics. I love lyrics but lyrics are distracting for your brain!
For enhanced concentration, try listening to brown noise, white noise, or music with 40 Hz binaural beats for a few minutes before your task. Then, switch to silence while you work. This approach can help prime your brain for focused attention.
To act the way we want to
Music provides momentum for the rest of the body, including movement. Rhythmic sounds stimulate the brain's motor areas, activating the cerebellum and basal ganglia, which are involved in timing and movement coordination. This neural activation can lead to increased motor excitability, effectively priming the body for physical action.
If you struggle to start your workout, try actively listening to a fast-paced song for 3-5 minutes before you begin. This can help prime your body and mind for physical activity.
This applies to any task! If you're frozen sitting and feeling sluggish and just need more energy or momentum this is a great hack!
Faster music encourages you to move faster. Therefore, many people listen to music while exercising.
My favorite exercise instructors expertly regulate our movements and breathing throughout the class using a carefully curated music playlist. They typically start with slower songs, gradually increase the tempo, and then wind down with slower tracks again.
To remember what we want to
“After the first survey, I was thinking a lot about music and memory - on trips where I've selected an album or playlist to play during or often on a trip , listening to that same collection later always jogs vivid memories. I'm not sure where memory falls as a component of intelligence but it's one of the relationships I've found myself having with music in the last few years.” - Lady of All Trades Maren
Music's powerful effect on memory is rooted in how our brains process and store information. When we listen to music, it activates multiple areas of the brain simultaneously, including regions responsible for emotion, memory, and sensory processing. This widespread neural activation creates stronger and more diverse memory traces, making experiences associated with music more vivid and easier to recall. Additionally, the emotional component of music can enhance memory consolidation, as emotionally charged experiences are typically remembered more clearly and for longer periods.
If I want to really remember a good moment, I listen to music right after it!
To process our emotions
“I often look for music, and specific sounds, genres, songs, when I want to amplify a feeling or help me process one. Oftentimes, I can get it just right but sometimes, I just can't seem to find the music that provides me with what I need in that moment...maybe there's a correlation there! I.e., if I know what music fits the mood, I've processed and understood my emotions well. On the other hand, if I can't quite find the right music to provide relief, connection, etc., maybe it's because I haven't quite understood, and certainly not processed, my own emotions yet!” - Climate Specialist Helen
Music stimulates the release of neurotransmitters like dopamine and serotonin, which can modulate our mood. The act of selecting music that matches or influences our emotional state has been shown to be an effective strategy for emotional management.
To feel how we want to feel
When we listen to music, it activates the brain's reward system, releasing dopamine and other neurotransmitters associated with pleasure. Over time, our brains form strong neural connections between particular songs and the emotions they evoke, a process known as musical conditioning. Additionally, factors like personal associations, cultural context, and the song's musical elements (tempo, key, dynamics) all contribute to this consistent emotional triggering, making music a reliable tool for mood regulation.
“I think it's kinda funny how I know certain songs will consistently trigger the same emotions over and over.”
If you're looking to boost your mood, here's our updated curated playlist of uplifting joyful songs recommended by readers:
Most people engage in these musical practices without even realizing it—that's how intuitive it is for us humans! This use of music for emotional regulation is a testament to our species' long evolutionary relationship with sounds.
I believe that everyone who can listen to music should take advantage of this gift.
By incorporating just a few more minutes of intentional music listening into our daily routines, we can significantly improve our overall well-being. This simple, enjoyable practice is a powerful tool for enhancing our lives.
But which music, when?
I know precisely which songs will evoke specific emotions in me—whether it's happiness, sadness, romance, heartbreak, the urge to dance, motivation to work, or enthusiasm for exercise.
I could tell you exactly which songs I use for specific purposes. Feel free to ask—I'm happy to recommend! However, everyone has their own unique musical toolbox, shaped by personal preferences and cultural influences.
For the songs that resonate with me, my predictions are unfailingly accurate. I leverage this self-knowledge throughout my day to accomplish tasks, cultivate desired emotions, and process my experiences.
There's so much in life beyond our control, which is why I'm profoundly grateful that music consistently delivers.
Given all the information above, I have a question for you:
Picture this—a gloomy, rainy day. Your energy is low. No solid social plans. It's just you, your thoughts, and a city brimming with potential distractions. What's your move? (Seriously, give me ideas.)
Thankfully, I do not find myself in this situation often, but I just described a Wednesday I had this summer.
As I stared out my window at the drizzling sky, I made a decision: Pilates class at my gym, followed by a free blues show near my gym.
As I planned my day, I was doing something we all do, often not intentionally enough - I was making predictions.
I wondered if the rain would dampen my spirits (pun intended) or refresh me. I guessed that Pilates would be challenging, but wasn't sure if it would energize or exhaust me. And the blues show? Would watching couples dance to the music lift my mood or highlight my solitude?
But amidst all these uncertainties, one prediction stood out with crystal clarity: the blues music would energize me. And you know what? In a day full of mixed results, that was the one prediction that hit the bullseye.
As I stood there, feeling the vibrations of a soulful guitar and watching a charismatic singer pour his heart out, something shifted.
Despite the rain, despite being alone, I found myself moving to the fast-paced beat, my mood improving exactly as I'd predicted.
The fast-paced blues music energized me, just as I knew it would. I felt musical clarity, and then, a small sense of triumph in my accurate foresight.
Musical Clarity!
In a life filled with unknowns and uncertainties, musical clarity stands out as a wonderful, reliable feeling—one I wish for everyone.
You don't need a live performance to feel this way. The beauty of cultivating a habit of active music listening is that you'll have this powerful tool at your disposal whenever you need it.
All you need for musical clarity is your intelligence hat and headphones…
… or these Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses that my Substack-writing jazz-attending friend Roshan recently bought, which play sound but don't block your ears and still let you hear the outside world. Maybe there is something to this 🤔?
When life's uncertainties leave you feeling like an Unstable table standing on an Unstable table, turn to your music.
Let the sounds you've come to know, that are so accessible to you at all times, be the stabilizing force that helps you get through the moment and find your balance.
Let the music remind you that:
You carry within you an instrument of predictability
Your playlist isn't just a collection of songs—it's a carefully tuned predictor of your emotions, a catalyst for your actions, and a testament to your innate intelligence.
Now that you've finished reading, I invite you to actively listen to pure 40 Hz binaural beats for a few minutes before moving on to your next task. Let me know if it enhances your focus and momentum!
With love and care,
Katya
My hunch is that music is most likely easier to predict because the units (individual songs you're listening to often times out of context) are fairly small, so there isn't time to create the emotional dynamics that you see in larger scoped art. Similar to photos vs movies. But as you get to larger units of music, I also bet you'd start to people express more about the variability (the A-side v B-side, "I like kanye's early stuff", etc).